Impact of Seasonal Variation in Climate on Water Quality of Old Woman Creek Watershed Ohio Using SWAT

The effect of the projected 21st century climate change on water quality in Old Woman Creek (OWC) watershed was evaluated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) precipitation temperature projections from three best Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)l ensemble downloaded Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, EC-EARTH) were identified as those closest to multivariate average twenty different GCM-driven SWAT simulations. Seasonal analysis undertaken historical (1985–2014), current near future (2018–2045), mid-century (2046–2075), late-century (2076–2100) windows. hydrological model calibration carried out a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm pareto optimization. Simulations made for stream flow nine variables (sediment, organic nitrogen, phosphorus, mineral chlorophyll a, carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus) interest. CMIP5-driven simulation results showed good correlation all 10 with PRISM-driven window (1985–2014). For period, result shows an over-estimation flow, sediment, nitrogen January March simulations CMIP5 inputs, relative PRISM input. other windows, show progressive increase peak month shifting April March. expected seasonal changes each variable have implications OWC estuary Lake Erie quality.